'Hunger Games' Weekend Box Office: 'Mockingjay 1' Opens With "Just" $275M Worldwide 

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I\'ve studied the film industry, both academically and informally, for 25 years and extensively written about it for the last five years. My outlets for film criticism, box office commentary, and film-skewing scholarship have included The Huffington Post, Salon, and Film Threat. Follow me at @ScottMendelson.

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\'Hunger Games\' Weekend Box Office: \'Mockingjay 1\' Opens With "Just" $275M Worldwide

), is the 28th film since May 2002 to open above $100 million over its Fri-Sun debut frame. It stands alongside the 

series as the only franchise to have three such debuts. It stands utterly alone as the only franchise to have three consecutive $100m+ debut weekends. So when we all take stock at the fact that the third 

film opened with $125 million this weekend, as opposed to the $152m earned by 

‘s debut weekend in March of 2012 and less than the $158m debut earned by 

this weekend last year, we should remember that we’re still dealing with a stunningly consistent top-tier blockbuster franchise. I hate that I’m in the position of having to explain and defend a film that earned $123m in a single weekend. Yet, with the off-chance that others try to spin these numbers as some kind of sign of doom, I think it’s worth taking a moment to defend a film that just pulled off the fiftheenth-biggest domestic debut of all-time.

To wit, Jennifer Lawrence’s third shot as Katniss Everdeen earned $17 million via Thursday sneaks and a $55.1m opening Friday, which in turn led to an estimated $40.7m Saturday and an alleged $27.1m Sunday gross. Yes, I’m sure Lionsgate would have liked another $150m+ weekend on its belt, but I can’t think of another franchise save the 

films which would be expected to have to defend such a mighty weekend haul. That’s a 2.27x weekend multiplier, which is a touch higher than the 2.25x weekend multiplier for 

($152m/$67m). But nonetheless, the film performed closer enough that we can consider the long term math to be pretty similar to the last two runs. If it performs like 

, it will end its domestic run with $329m, just below 

as 2014′s top domestic grosser. I would imagine Lionsgate (Lions Gate Entertainment) will keep it in theaters longer than they otherwise would if it comes down to the wire, but that’s a discussion for next month.

Come what may, the film cost $125m to produce, so it will double its budget domestically by early December at worst. And let’s be honest for a second, the franchise has just one more entry to go. Even if this entry plays more like a

sequel (which would give it around $260m domestic), there isn’t much at stake beyond pride. It’s thus-far doing better than the last one overseas with a $152m overseas debut, 4% larger than 

and giving the film a robust $275m worldwide bow. On the other hand, in terms of racing up the “top worldwide grossers of 2014″ list, its China release, originally set for this weekend, was pushed back to January 2015 for reasons not explicitly clarified. At this point, we’re merely discussing whether or not a big hit will be among the biggest hits of the year. Anyway, the film played 60% female and 52% under-25 years old (for comparison’s sake,

played 57% female and 50/50 over/under 25 years old). I don’t have the PLF numbers but I will update when they drop.

Truth be told, this third of four films was always going to be a financial low water mark for the franchise, at least domestically. It lacked the excitement of the initial installment, the buzz of the sequel or the rush of the series finale. Even if it was its own self-contained story, it would have been at a relative disadvantage. But the fact that it was merely one half of a single story, with all of the “good stuff” clearly left for the next film, was the nail in the (relatively speaking) coffin. Even 

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I 

(which opened with $125 million on this weekend in 2010) had certain “big moments” to tease, while 

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I 

had the whole Bella/Edward wedding and the pregnancy/imprinting stuff to offer. 

was almost entirely foreplay, with basically one action scene over its 123 minute running time. Moreover, when it comes to threequels, we are just as likely to get a 

The reviews weren’t as strong this time around, with much of the press centering on the fact that this was clearly one story split up into two films, with all of the “fun” stuff left for the next movie. The film lacked the IMAX advantage this time around (since IMAX wasn’t going to dump Christopher Nolan under any circumstances) leaving only the PLF formats for relative ticket upcharges.  The only thing really “at stake” was the notion that 

would be the first franchise to score four $400 million+ domestic grossers, consecutively no less. For now it will have to settle for having at best four $400m+ domestic grossers, which in itself is a record and four (consecutive) $100m+ debut weekends, a record that won’t be broken until

The sheer level of success of these films, with just one more to go, is still quite impressive and the fact that the film managed a $125m debut weekend, without 3D and without IMAX, is a testament to the sizes and loyalty of the fan base.  The only negative effect of the “lower” 

debut may be in overall cumulative box office, a statistic that I’m loathe to even bring up as I think it’s not very useful as an analytic tool (because every year has wildly different movies compared to the last year). Just as 

scared off everyone from July 4th weekend, so too is the Thanksgiving slate a bit light, with only 

 (which Mark Hughes didn’t care for one bit)

dropping wide over the holiday. In retrospect, I would have moved one of the 3,751 films opening in late December over into the holiday, but that’s just me.

Since I imagine most of you came to read about 

, I will leave it at that and craft a separate box office post for holdover news. Join us next weekend for the Thanksgiving weekend, where the aforementioned DreamWorks Animation

spin-off and Warner Bros. R-rated comedy sequel go wide while Weinstein Company debuts Benedict Cumberbatch’s 

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